Signs of recovery, three years on: the money returned, the discoveries did not

In April 2023, Chile Explore Report asked me whether the rebound in economic activity and metal prices was reason for optimism in exploration. My answer was: not yet.

"It is not a sign of optimism yet, because what Chile needs is greater investment in discovering new copper deposits, as well as unlocking lithium production." Statement to Chile Explore Report, issue 122, April 2023

Three years on it is worth testing that reading against the data, because one half of the picture changed completely and the other half did not move at all.

What did change: the money

Copper hit an all-time high of US$6.59 per pound in the week of 10–14 August 2026, and averages US$6.00 for the year, nearly 40% above the same period in 2025. Behind it: a weaker dollar, restricted concentrate availability — delays at Grasberg, operational trouble at Kamoa-Kakula — and production cuts in Chile itself.

The ten-year mining investment pipeline reached US$104.546 billion, the highest in more than a decade and US$21.369 billion above the previous count, with copper at around 90% of the total. And the exploration budget closed 2025 at US$874.7 million, the highest since 2013.

Read on their own, those three figures describe a boom.

What did not change: where that money goes

Open up the composition and the boom dissolves.

• Only 19% of the pipeline is new initiatives. The other 81% is replacement and expansion of existing operations. Cochilco says it plainly: the industry is prioritising sustaining and expanding what already runs over opening new deposits.
• Half of all exploration happens inside the mine. Of the US$874.7 million spent in 2025, US$449.3 million — 51.4% — was in-mine exploration. Early-stage exploration, the kind that actually looks for deposits where none are known, received US$206.5 million.
• The juniors pulled back. Globally, junior companies cut exploration spending by 13.4% while majors raised their share to 53.4%. And juniors are historically the ones who discover.
• 77 prospects sit paused out of 235 in the register, with more than 80% of active properties concentrated in Atacama, Antofagasta and Coquimbo.

Why this happens

The easy explanation is price, and price no longer works as an excuse. The real explanation is that a new discovery competes, inside the same boardroom, against an expansion at an operation that already has permits, road access, water, power and social licence. When the gap between finding something and producing it is measured in more than a decade, the expansion wins every time.

That gap is a public-policy variable, not a geological one. The reforms of the past two years point the right way — Law 21,770 on sectoral authorisations, phasing in through 2027, and Phase 2 of the SEIA regulation in force since January 2026 — but they have not yet shown up in observable timelines: in 2025 an Environmental Impact Declaration averaged 399 days and a full Study 1,124.

What I said in 2023 about the rules of the game still holds with the same force: companies are willing to comply, but they need indisputable certainty. A project that invested, believed in the country and met the requirements should not then be derailed by short-term politics.

What did get unlocked

Lithium is where the 2023 diagnosis fell short in a good way. The Codelco–SQM partnership for the Salar de Atacama cleared competition approvals across multiple jurisdictions and received conditional clearance from the Chinese regulator in November 2025, with production commitments running to 2060. The National Lithium Strategy organised the rest of the map between strategic salt flats, competitive processes and a protected network.

This is not a liberalisation — lithium remains non-concessible — but it is certainty about who operates what, and for how long. That certainty was the missing piece.

What it means for an investor

1. The price cycle is not the signal. If an all-time copper high is not triggering greenfield exploration, price is not what is holding decisions back.
2. The scarce asset is the permitted project, not the orebody. That shows up in the valuation of any acquisition.
3. The window sits in those 77 paused prospects and in the active properties held by companies that could not fund their next stage. That is where patient capital buys cheaply.
4. The variable to watch is permitting time, not the metal price. If the agency's target of cutting timelines 30% by 2030 lands, the maths between expanding and discovering genuinely changes.

Frequently asked questions

How much is invested in mining exploration in Chile?

Chile's exploration budget reached US$874.7 million in 2025, the highest level since 2013 and US$80.7 million above 2024. Copper took 76% with US$669.6 million; lithium, US$49 million.

Why are discoveries not rising if investment is?

Because the spending concentrates on existing operations: 51.4% of the 2025 exploration budget was in-mine exploration, and only 19% of the mining investment pipeline is new initiatives. The remaining 81% is replacement and expansion.

How large is Chile's mining investment pipeline?

US$104.546 billion projected over the next decade, the highest in more than ten years and US$21.369 billion above the previous count, with copper at roughly 90% of the total.

For why timelines behave this way, see our analysis of the bottlenecks in environmental permitting and the practical guide to mining permits. On lithium, the regime is explained here.

Sources: Cochilco — 2025 exploration register, mining investment pipeline report and weekly price report (August 2026); Environmental Assessment Service public account (July 2026). The 2023 quotation is the author's own statement as published in Chile Explore Report, issue 122, April 2023. This article is general information, not investment advice.